Exclusive: AIMIM Holds the Key in Bihar’s Rajya Sabha 2026 – The High-Stakes Game for the 5th Seat

Patna, February 21, 2026: Voting for the 2026 Rajya Sabha elections in Bihar is scheduled for March 16. While most seats seem straightforward for the major alliances, the contest for the fifth seat has turned into a high-stakes political chess game. Neither the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nor the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) has an outright advantage, placing Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM in a pivotal position.

NDA’s Position

The NDA, led by the BJP and JDU, can comfortably secure four Rajya Sabha seats using their assembly strength. However, the fifth seat poses a challenge. After allocating their votes for the first four, NDA will have only 10 votes remaining. Even if they bring in support from smaller allies—Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (19 votes), Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP (4 votes), and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (5 votes)—they will reach only 38 votes, falling three short of the 41 needed.

Mahagathbandhan’s Calculation

Under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, the Grand Alliance also faces a shortfall. The combined strength of RJD, Congress, Left, and IIP totals 35 votes (25 + 6 + 3 + 1). They still require six more votes to reach the 41-vote mark. The five AIMIM legislators, previously turned away by Tejashwi, now become crucial, with additional support potentially coming from BSP’s sole MLA, Satish Singh Yadav.

AIMIM’s Strategy

Despite holding just five MLAs, AIMIM has no real intention of claiming the fifth seat. According to insiders, the party’s aim is to disrupt the plans of both alliances. Historically underestimated by both NDA and Mahagathbandhan, AIMIM is using its limited numbers to demonstrate influence, signaling that even a small bloc can sway outcomes.

How the Alliances Are Responding

• Mahagathbandhan: A reliable source suggests that the alliance is prepared to collaborate with AIMIM and BSP if necessary to secure the fifth seat. The key will be strategic negotiations rather than brute arithmetic.
• NDA: Sources reveal that the NDA may leave a seat “for the opposition” on moral grounds but needs at least three cross-votes from rival parties to ensure victory. Even with BSP’s support, they remain two votes short.

Who Will Win the Fifth Seat?

The fifth seat remains unpredictable: one alliance is hoping to rely on strategic coalitions (“the trio”), while the other aims to secure it outright (“hitting a six”). Unlike 12 years ago, when JDU faced cross-voting challenges, this time the possibilities for disruption are limited. The real power lies in AIMIM’s hands, holding the “key” that could decide the outcome.

All eyes will be on March 16, when the final results will reveal whether strategy, negotiation, or political muscle prevails.