Why Somaliland Has Become a Strategic Pivot for India, Israel, Ethiopia, and the UAE – And What China and Turkey Might Do Next

Hargeisa / New Delhi: Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, Houthi rebels have begun targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, raising global concerns over the security of one of the world’s busiest maritime routes. For Israel, safeguarding these shipping lanes has become a core national security priority.

A New Strategic Framework

On December 26 last year, Israel shocked the world by officially recognizing Somaliland, a move seen as a major shift in the Horn of Africa. Israel’s aim is to assert influence in the Red Sea, a vital corridor connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. The recognition sparked criticism from countries including China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, but Israel has steadily aligned with India, the UAE, and Ethiopia to form a strategic axis countering Chinese and Turkish influence.

The emerging four-nation framework focuses on securing key maritime chokepoints in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab, laying the groundwork for an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in East Africa. Israeli analysts have urged India to recognize Somaliland, arguing that India’s production capabilities combined with Israeli technology could create a strong counterbalance in the region.

Maritime Security and Strategic Significance

The war in Gaza and subsequent Houthi attacks have exposed the vulnerability of southern shipping routes. Protecting these corridors is now a central element of Israel’s regional strategy. Somaliland is particularly significant because it sits along one of the busiest maritime trade routes globally. Cooperation among Israel and its allies could pave the way for military collaboration, infrastructure expansion, and advanced technological integration.

India’s Role in the Red Sea Axis

For India, this development strengthens its strategic footprint in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean. Through initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and MAHASAGAR, India positions itself as a regional maritime security leader, offering coordinated naval oversight, shared surveillance systems, and first-responder capabilities. This framework reduces the influence of external powers such as the U.S. and Russia while increasing India’s leverage over Chinese and Turkish shipping operations.

Ethiopia: The Continental Pillar

Ethiopia, with a population of over 125 million, serves as the continental anchor of the framework. Historically reliant on Djibouti for port access—where China has a major naval base—Ethiopia can now utilize Somaliland’s Berbera Port as a strategic and secure alternative. India has developed a strategic partnership with Ethiopia, allowing joint deployment and testing of defense systems, including weapons co-developed with Israel, enhancing both defense exports and regional influence.

The Emerging Power Axis

Through Somaliland, the India-Israel-UAE-Ethiopia alliance is creating a maritime pivot in the Red Sea, balancing power, integrating technology, and reshaping corridor politics. Israeli innovation, Indian naval strength, UAE capital, and Ethiopian strategic needs converge in a project designed to secure trade routes and establish a new regional order.

The strength and sustainability of this framework will ultimately depend on continental stability, diplomatic management, and the responses of rival powers unwilling to concede influence in the Horn of Africa.