New Delhi: India’s “Neighborhood First” policy is set for its toughest test in 2026. The year could witness renewed tensions with Pakistan, with sustained military pressure likely throughout. Meanwhile, Bangladesh appears to be aligning with Pakistan, adding further complexity to India’s regional diplomacy.
Geopolitical Pressures Intensify
The beginning of 2026 has already posed significant challenges. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 500% tariff on countries importing Russian oil, a move that could severely impact India’s economic and strategic balance. During Prime Minister Modi’s 11-year tenure, 2025 proved the most challenging year geopolitically, and 2026 appears to extend those difficulties. Persistent tensions—from Trump’s aggressive policies, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, instability in West Asia, to China’s assertive maneuvers—have tested India’s strategic autonomy. Experts warn that navigating a multipolar world while balancing relations will be increasingly difficult.
Senator Lindsey Graham has confirmed Trump’s support for legislation imposing steep tariffs on Russian oil buyers. India, which has already faced a 50% tariff, could face a dramatic economic setback if the tariff rises to 500%. Policymakers are expected to be strategizing to maintain economic momentum while preserving diplomatic balance.
Trump Emerges as a Major Challenge
In the very first week of 2026, Trump ordered an attack in Venezuela, resulting in the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro. His attention now turns to Greenland, Cuba, and Colombia, while his “America First” approach begins to reshape global alignments. India’s key strategic question this year will be whether to maintain its long-standing partnership with Russia or make concessions to appease U.S. pressures. Energy security, defense cooperation, and geopolitical equilibrium will all hang in the balance, demanding careful decision-making.
India-China Relations in 2026
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the SCO summit in Tianjin last year hinted at possible cooperation with China to counterbalance Trump’s pressures. India is set to host the BRICS summit in 2026, with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin likely to attend. Despite persistent border disputes and Indo-Pacific competition, experts suggest India and China could cooperate strategically to mitigate U.S. pressures. Meanwhile, China seems to be signaling Pakistan, which is increasingly leaning towards the U.S., demonstrating the delicate dynamics in the region.
India’s engagement in multilateral platforms such as QUAD, BRICS, and SCO remains a critical diplomatic tool to avoid permanent alignment or confrontation.
Insights from Experts
Professor Anshu Joshi of Jawaharlal Nehru University observes: “Despite U.S. pressure, India has demonstrated strategic autonomy on international platforms. However, ongoing conflicts around us couldn’t be averted, contrary to Trump’s claims. Domestic challenges in the U.S. and Trump’s ego-driven decisions have altered Indo-U.S. relations.”
Former Ambassador Anil Trigunayat adds: “Given the Western sanctions on Russia, India had to secure its energy needs from a trusted partner, which disappointed the West. Abandoning decades-long partnerships for short-term pressures would be a strategic mistake, and this challenge will persist through 2026.”
Neighborhood First Policy Under Strain
Renewed tensions with Pakistan and the alignment of Bangladesh with Islamabad pose significant tests. With Bangladesh elections upcoming, interim government head Mohammad Yunus is promoting closer economic and defense ties with Pakistan. Political instability in Bangladesh could impact India’s internal security and the northeastern states.
Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives will also see elections in 2026, while India-China competition in the region remains evident. Myanmar and Afghanistan’s situations are crucial for India’s security and connectivity projects. Maintaining influence and partnerships in neighboring countries will require careful diplomatic maneuvering, especially in light of elections in Bangladesh and Nepal, where political instability continues to prevail.
Opportunities Amid Challenges
Despite these challenges, 2026 offers India avenues to strengthen its global presence. Revamping supply chains, pursuing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), and negotiating Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) could bolster India’s economic interests. Active engagement across Europe, Africa, West Asia, and Latin America positions India as a reliable global player. The need for continuous reassessment of national interests on every platform underscores the resilience and adaptability of India’s foreign policy.
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