Pakistan Pays Heavy Price for Taliban Rift: Trade Halt with Afghanistan Causes $4.5 Billion Loss, Traders Cry Foul

Pakistan’s deteriorating relationship with the Taliban-led Afghan government has begun to exact a severe economic toll, with the suspension of cross-border trade inflicting losses estimated at $4.5 billion, according to Pakistani business bodies. As tensions escalate along the border, Pakistani traders are bearing the brunt of a political and security standoff that shows little sign of easing.

The Pakistan–Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned that the continued closure of border trade routes has pushed Pakistani exporters and transporters into crisis. The situation worsened after Pakistan carried out air strikes in Afghanistan, believing the show of force would pressure the Taliban into acting against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Instead, militant attacks on Pakistani security forces have continued, while economic fallout has intensified.

Daily Trade Losses Mounting

Pakistani media, citing the Chamber, reported that during peak agricultural and construction seasons, daily exports to Afghanistan typically range between $50 million and $60 million. With trade suspended for nearly two months, losses have already crossed $4.5 billion.

The Chamber has cautioned that if the impasse continues, exports of oranges and potatoes between December and March could suffer catastrophic damage, resulting in an additional $200 million loss.

Traders in Distress, Markets Disrupted

Pakistani traders say they are facing unprecedented disruption. Long queues of stranded trucks loaded with coal, cement, pomegranates, cotton, medicines and other goods have built up on both sides of the border. Transporters and exporters are struggling with mounting costs, spoilage of perishable items, and cancelled contracts.

Compounding Pakistan’s woes, Afghanistan has reportedly found alternatives to Pakistani pharmaceutical supplies, with the first consignment of Indian medicines already reaching Afghan markets—a development that further weakens Pakistan’s export position.

Afghanistan Turns Away from Pakistan

With Pakistani routes blocked, Afghanistan’s cargo has also been stuck at Karachi port, forcing Kabul to accelerate the use of Iran’s Chabahar Port, developed with Indian assistance. As a landlocked country, Afghanistan is now diversifying its trade routes and expanding commerce with Central Asian nations, reducing long-term dependence on Pakistan.

Analysts note that while Pakistan once played a decisive role in facilitating the Taliban’s return to power, relations have soured since Kabul refused to act as Islamabad’s proxy, particularly on the issue of TTP militants.

Refugees, Fear and Political Miscalculation

Pakistan has also begun repatriating Afghan refugees, triggering fear and uncertainty among Afghan communities living in the country. Many are reportedly avoiding public spaces amid growing pressure from authorities.

Security experts argue that Pakistan’s strategy of applying military and economic pressure to force Taliban compliance may have backfired, damaging trade ties built over decades while failing to curb militant violence.

Strategic Setback for Pakistan

The prolonged trade shutdown has not only hurt Pakistan’s economy but has also undermined its access to Central Asian markets, where Afghan transit routes play a crucial role. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s shift toward alternative corridors is reshaping regional trade dynamics—largely to Pakistan’s disadvantage.

As Pakistani traders plead for an immediate reopening of borders, the crisis highlights a stark reality: geopolitical brinkmanship is costing Pakistan billions, while its neighbors adapt and move on.