Pakistan on the Brink: Will Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Break Away First? TTP & BLA Uprisings Turn Into Munir’s Worst Nightmare

Pakistan is facing one of the gravest internal security crises in its history. Separatist movements in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) are gaining unprecedented momentum, terror attacks have surged sharply, and the rift between the military and the civilian government has further destabilized the nation. The growing unrest has sparked a serious debate: Which province will secede first—Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

Escalating Terror: Pakistan’s Security Meltdown

According to the annual security report by Islamabad-based think tank CRSS, between January and September 2025:

• 2,414 people were killed in various terror attacks
• A 58% rise compared to the same period in 2024 (1,527 deaths)
• In just July–September, 901 deaths and 599 injuries were recorded
• Over 96% of the violence occurred in KP and Balochistan
• 71% of total fatalities were reported from KP

Both provinces are witnessing daily attacks, targeted killings, and fierce clashes between militants and security forces—making them nearly ungovernable.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: TTP’s Expanding Shadow

KP is in the grip of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which demands the imposition of Sharia law. Several regions of KP are also claimed by the Afghan Taliban, complicating the security landscape even further.
The Pakistani military has lost control over vast mountainous and tribal belts, where militants operate freely.

Balochistan: A Struggle for Freedom and Resources

In Balochistan, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and other insurgent groups have intensified their decades-long struggle for independence.
The anger stems from:

• Exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources
• Systematic human rights abuses
• Large-scale enforced disappearances
• Mass killings allegedly backed by the Pakistani military

Human rights organisations estimate thousands of Baloch civilians remain missing, many believed to have been killed extrajudicially.

Pakistan Blames India—Again

Unable to suppress the insurgencies, Pakistan’s establishment, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, continues to blame India for fuelling unrest in both provinces. Munir has coined a new term—“Fitna al-Khawarij”—to label all anti-state voices, portraying internal dissent as foreign-sponsored terrorism.

Expert Insight: Provinces Pushed to the Brink

Dr. Ranjan Singh, Professor of Journalism at MCU Bhopal, says:

“KP and Balochistan are suffering because their rights and resources were confiscated to benefit Punjab and Sindh. People have been met with bullets whenever they raised their voice. Under Asim Munir, atrocities have only intensified.”

He added that the widespread killings of civilians, women, and children by Pakistan’s security forces have driven both provinces dangerously close to rebellion.

A Call for India to Intervene Diplomatically

Dr. Singh further argues:

“As a global economic and military power, India must support suppressed voices in these regions, just as it did in 1971 for Bangladesh. India should push for a UN-supervised referendum in KP and Balochistan.”

He suggests that India and Afghanistan could form a strategic front to counter Pakistan’s destabilising actions in the region.

Munir’s Rise and Pakistan’s Deepening Crisis

Since Asim Munir took over as Army Chief, Pakistan’s situation has worsened dramatically. Munir:

• Aggressively postured against India to gain domestic legitimacy
• Used “Operation Sindoor” to elevate his political stature despite Pakistan’s heavy losses
• Forced constitutional amendments to appoint himself Field Marshal and Chief of Defence Forces (CDF)—the most powerful position in Pakistan

Today, Munir stands above the Prime Minister, President, Judiciary, and even the Naval and Air Chiefs.

A Nation at Breaking Point

With the passage of Pakistan’s 27th Constitutional Amendment, the military now reigns supreme. Democratic institutions have been reduced to rubber stamps.
As the army tightens its grip, insurgencies are swelling, and public resentment is overflowing.

If Pakistan fails to restore political stability and respect regional rights, both Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could be on the verge of breaking away—perhaps sooner than the world anticipates.