Jamaat Emerges Ahead of BNP in Hindu-Majority Seats: Why Sheikh Hasina Becomes the Decisive Factor

Dhaka: With Bangladesh’s general elections just ten days away, political competition in Hindu-majority constituencies is heating up. Traditionally, Hindu voters have supported Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, but this year, with the party barred from contesting, the choice is largely between the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and Jamaat-e-Islami.

On 30 January, Jamaat-e-Islami candidates campaigned in Hindu villages, presenting themselves as protectors of Hindu interests. Meanwhile, the BNP has accused joint task forces of harassing Hindu voters in Itna, Mithamoin, and Austagram sub-districts, including arrests on allegedly fabricated charges. Local reports indicate that Hindu voters are carefully weighing which party—BNP or Jamaat—can provide short, medium, and long-term security.

Election Dynamics in Key Divisions

Political analysts suggest that the outcome in Hindu-majority constituencies will largely depend on strategic voter behavior influenced by Awami League support. Despite Awami League leaders being based in India since August 2024 and officially advising supporters to stay away from the polls, reports from the ground indicate that party workers are actively directing votes in 64 districts.

In the Sunamganj-2 constituency, previously represented by Awami League leader Suranjit Sengupta (deceased), Hindu voters are reportedly leaning toward Jamaat-e-Islami. Similarly, in the Rangpur Division, where eight districts account for 33 parliamentary seats, Jamaat could win 17 seats, potentially matching its 2001 performance in alliance with BNP. In Rajshahi Division, BNP is expected to capture 23 of 39 seats, while Jamaat may secure 16, showing pockets of influence in Khulna, Satkhira, and parts of northeastern Bangladesh.

Jamaat-e-Islami’s Ties with India

Bangladeshi Indian officials have reportedly started liaising with Jamaat-e-Islami. The Indian High Commission in Dhaka invited Jamaat Secretary-General Ghulam Parwar, a candidate from Khulna-5, to Republic Day celebrations. Earlier, in August 2025, following Jamaat leader Shafiqul Rahman’s coronary artery bypass surgery, two Indian diplomats visited him discreetly at his residence after Fajr prayers. While India has not officially recognized any connection, speculation suggests that Jamaat could be acknowledged as a legitimate political force if it plays a decisive role in government formation post-election.

Implications for Hindu Voters

For Hindu-majority constituencies, the key calculation is which party ensures safety, representation, and influence in the absence of Awami League candidates. Analysts believe that whoever secures the support of Awami League sympathizers and Hindu voters is most likely to win a majority of the 151 critical seats, making Sheikh Hasina’s indirect influence decisive despite her party’s election ban.

The upcoming 12 February polls are expected to reshape political alliances, with Hindu-majority constituencies emerging as pivotal in determining the next government.