In a First in 37 Years, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Skips Military Meeting: Fear of US Strike or Strategic Move?

In a surprising development, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not attend the annual meeting of Iranian Air Force commanders on February 8, breaking a tradition he has upheld since assuming power in 1989. The unprecedented absence has raised questions amid escalating tensions with the United States.

Tradition Broken Amid Rising Tensions
The meeting of air force commanders is a key event demonstrating loyalty to the Islamic Republic. This year, the session was attended by senior officers, while Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi represented Khamenei. Analysts suggest that the Supreme Leader’s absence signals growing security concerns, with fears that he could be targeted in a potential U.S. strike. Since tensions with Washington intensified, Khamenei has reportedly been staying in a concealed bunker.

Despite his absence, Khamenei has repeatedly warned that any U.S. attack could trigger a major conflict across the Middle East. He stated, “If the United States initiates war this time, it will spread across the region.”

Strategic Calculations or Health Concerns?
Iran has historically engaged in regional conflicts through proxy forces, but direct attacks on Iranian territory were rare until last year. In June 2025, Israel conducted intense air and drone strikes on Iran, sparking a 12-day conflict that eventually drew in the United States, which targeted three underground nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs.

Khamenei’s absence has fueled speculation: Is it due to health issues, fear of a U.S. strike, or preparations regarding succession planning? Some strategic experts believe that sending a deputy to the meeting was a deliberate choice, signaling a message to both domestic and foreign audiences. It may indicate that Iran’s leadership is prioritizing strategic caution over projecting overt strength, while internal debates continue on how best to respond to U.S. pressure—through diplomacy or confrontation, the latter carrying potentially devastating consequences.