Canada-US Tensions: Trump Revives 95-Year-Old War Plan, Raising Fears in Ottawa

Washington/Ottawa: Relations between the United States and Canada are under renewed strain as former US President Donald Trump reignites old tensions, prompting fears of potential military conflict. Trump had previously referred to the Canadian Prime Minister as a “governor,” souring diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The US military had prepared a secretive plan in 1927, later approved in 1930, known as “War Plan Red,” which envisioned a hypothetical invasion of Canada. According to military strategists of the time, the plan involved highly aggressive, multi-front operations to ensure Canada could be subdued within hours. The strategy included poison gas attacks, capture of strategic ports, disruption of sea and rail links, and occupation of cities along lakes and rivers, with large-scale hostage-taking envisioned to force a swift surrender.

The plan was originally part of a contingency strategy against Great Britain, ensuring that in a hypothetical war, the US would not allow Britain any advantage in North America. However, planners later dismissed it as “bizarre.”

Trump and Modern-Day Tensions
In recent years, Trump has again drawn attention to Canada, calling it the 51st US state amidst his threats against Venezuela and Greenland. This has fueled concerns in Ottawa, prompting the Canadian military to develop simulations for a hypothetical US invasion, including guerrilla tactics inspired by conflicts in Afghanistan.

Analysts warn that if Trump or his allies take aggressive measures, they could weaken Canada’s security along the 8,850 km US-Canada border, potentially even targeting Alberta as part of a strategic push.

F-35 Fighter Jet Controversy
Meanwhile, the US has pressured Canada to procure F-35 fighter jets under the decade-old North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) agreement. US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra warned that failure to acquire the jets could force the US Air Force to operate in Canadian airspace to fill the defense gap, further straining bilateral relations. Analysts fear such a move could severely damage the long-standing Canada-US partnership.

Expert Analysis
Canadian conflict researcher Thomas Homer-Dixon commented, “Canada’s geography and population make it unusually vulnerable, and Trump’s team could exploit this to project US military power across the border.”

The revival of War Plan Red, combined with current political tensions, has left Canada on edge, with officials and citizens closely monitoring US intentions and preparing for all contingencies.