Bangladesh Election Survey: Tarique Rahman or Shafiq – Who Will Become the Next Prime Minister?

Dhaka: Bangladesh is heading to the polls on February 12 to elect its next government. This election is taking place in the absence of Sheikh Hasina, who served as Prime Minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024, drawing global attention to the outcome.

With Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League out of the race, the contest has become a direct battle between Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, leading the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and Shafiqur Rahman of the right-wing, India-opposing Jamaat-e-Islami party. BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have been campaigning vigorously across the country.

Survey Predicts BNP Victory
According to a recent opinion poll conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) and reported by the Bangladeshi newspaper Prothom Alo, the BNP-led alliance is poised to win a clear majority. The survey, which covered 41,500 respondents nationwide, predicts that the BNP-led coalition could secure 208 seats, while the Jamaat-led alliance may win 46 seats, the Ethnic Party 3 seats, other parties 4 seats, and independent candidates 17 seats.

Bangladesh’s Jatiya Sangsad (Parliament) comprises 350 elected members, of which 300 are directly elected from constituencies, and 50 are reserved seats. Members serve a five-year term.

BNP Emerges as Voter Favorite
The survey results released in Dhaka indicate strong voter preference for BNP. 66.3% of respondents named BNP as their first choice, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami with 11.9%, NCP with 1.7%, the Ethnic Party with 4%, and independents with 2.6%. Notably, BNP enjoys significant support among women, with 71.1% backing the party.

Regional trends highlight BNP’s dominance in Chattogram (76.8%) and Sylhet (75.6%), while the Jamaat-led alliance shows relative strength in Barishal (17.8%) and Khulna (18.6%).

With the stage set for a historic election, all eyes are on whether Tarique Rahman can secure a decisive mandate to become Bangladesh’s next Prime Minister.