Pakistan Throws First Serious Challenge to China’s Rare Earth Monopoly—With a Colorful Box Before Trump

China currently controls nearly 60–65% of the global rare earth market, and the United States imports a major portion of its requirement from Beijing. However, with China now adopting a “controlled export” policy, Washington is under mounting strategic pressure—forcing it to look for alternative sources.

In a surprising geopolitical twist, Pakistan has positioned itself as a potential challenger to China’s dominance. During a recent meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir presented a box containing colorful mineral stones and ores. These reportedly included bastnäsite and monazite, which are primary sources of high-value rare earth elements such as cerium, lanthanum, and neodymium—critical for smartphones, missile guidance systems, electric vehicle batteries, and other advanced technologies.

Pakistan’s Untapped Resource Pitch

Pakistan has long claimed the existence of “untapped mineral reserves,” especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While the actual volume and commercial viability of these deposits remain unclear, Pakistan’s military-civilian establishment has sent a clear message by signing a deal with US Strategic Metals (USSM).

The reported roadmap is divided into three phases:

1. 2025–26: Export of easily accessible copper and allied minerals to the United States.
2. 2026–28: Establishment of processing plants and refineries in Pakistan, including technology transfer.
3. Post-2028: Large-scale mining, drilling, and launch of 5–10 new strategic projects.

Initial investment in this deal is estimated at $500 million.

A Strategic Headache for Beijing

China has invested billions in Pakistan and is often described as its “all-weather friend.” If Islamabad grants mining rights to a U.S. firm, it would mark a direct strategic blow to Beijing. Until now, China has shown limited interest in Pakistan’s rare earth resources, but the prospect of the U.S. developing an alternative supply route from the region is bound to trigger concern in Beijing.

Ground Realities May Hamper Ambitions

Despite the grand vision, several serious challenges stand in Pakistan’s way:

• Security Concerns: Regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are plagued by insurgency and terrorism, making foreign investment and large-scale mining operations risky.
• Political Instability: Pakistan’s hybrid power structure—split between the military and civilian leadership—continues to complicate long-term policy enforcement.
• Economic Fragility: The rare earth sector demands high-end technology and massive capital, both difficult without sustained American backing.

A New Geo-Strategic Alignment?

If the U.S. chooses to rely on Pakistan for rare earth supplies, China’s leverage could weaken significantly. This development would not only reshape Washington’s supply chains but could also alter South Asia’s strategic balance, especially for India.

For Pakistan, the rare earth deal offers a financial lifeline. However, it could place the country directly between Washington and Beijing’s strategic tug-of-war.

The Big Question

Can Pakistan overcome its internal challenges and turn this geopolitical opportunity into reality? As of now, one thing is certain:
That small box of colorful stones has stirred big waves in global power politics. If the U.S. secures reliable rare earth supplies from Pakistan, it could reshape the regional and global balance of power—and deliver the first serious challenge to China’s rare earth monopoly.

—Neeraj Kumar Dubey

(The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.)

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