Who Will Capture the Muslim Vote Bank in Western UP? Why Naseemuddin Siddiqui’s Move Matters Even for Owaisi

The battle for the Muslim vote bank in Western Uttar Pradesh is intensifying as political parties gear up for the 2027 assembly elections. Recent developments surrounding Naseemuddin Siddiqui have added a new dimension to the contest, drawing attention from both regional and national players.

Siddiqui’s Political Moves in Focus

Naseemuddin Siddiqui, who began his political career with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and was once a close aide of party chief Mayawati, recently resigned from the Congress. Reports indicate that he may formally join the Samajwadi Party (SP) on February 15 in the presence of party president Akhilesh Yadav. Several former legislators are also expected to join SP alongside him.

From 2007 to 2012, Siddiqui held key positions in the BSP government. Though he may not command the same influence as Azam Khan in the Muslim community, his stronghold in Bundelkhand and Western UP is well recognized. SP faces a unique challenge as Azam Khan remains in jail and his health is reportedly fragile, which could limit his electoral impact even if he is released before the elections.

Strategic Importance for SP

By inducting Siddiqui, SP aims to consolidate the Muslim vote bank in Bundelkhand and Western UP, while also attempting to penetrate BSP’s cadre-based vote share. Siddiqui’s local appeal is expected to help SP regain trust among voters in these regions and strengthen the party’s electoral prospects.

AIMIM’s Growing Influence

Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has been actively expanding its footprint following its performance in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. Party chief Asaduddin Owaisi, with his state president Shaukat Ali executing strategies on the ground, is trying to challenge SP and other parties for Muslim votes in UP. AIMIM has also publicly targeted BJP, SP, and Congress leaders, keeping the political climate charged.

Changing Electoral Equations

There are discussions about a potential AIMIM-BSP alliance, which could further alter the dynamics in Western UP. Analysts suggest that Muslim voters in this region are likely to support whichever party appears strongest against the BJP. In this scenario, Siddiqui’s induction into SP is likely to bolster the party’s position, leveraging his local influence to secure voter confidence.

At the same time, Mayawati and the Congress are actively working to strengthen their presence in Western UP, promoting local leaders and consolidating support. However, Siddiqui’s move is seen as a setback for Congress, signaling that SP is determined to contest for seats without compromise in the upcoming elections.