IIT Kanpur Research Warns: Major Earthquake Could Cause Severe Damage in Kanpur and Prayagraj

Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh): A detailed research study conducted by IIT Kanpur has raised serious concerns about earthquake preparedness in Uttar Pradesh. According to the study, if an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or above strikes the Gangetic plains, the cities of Kanpur and Prayagraj could suffer massive destruction due to a dangerous phenomenon known as soil liquefaction.

The warning comes years after the devastating 2015 Nepal earthquake, whose tremors were strongly felt across Uttar Pradesh. Despite that experience, experts believe that the state has still not developed adequate preparedness to handle a major seismic disaster.

Liquefaction Identified as the Biggest Threat

Explaining the findings, Professor Nihar Ranjan Patra from the Civil Engineering Department of IIT Kanpur said that the soil in Kanpur and Prayagraj contains a high proportion of fine sand particles. During strong earthquake tremors, the soil can lose its strength and behave like a liquid, a process known as liquefaction.

When underground water mixes with silty sand and begins to rise upward, the soil becomes unstable. As a result, the foundations of buildings weaken significantly, increasing the chances of structures sinking, tilting, or collapsing.

Historical Evidence of Liquefaction in the Region

The research also highlights that liquefaction incidents were recorded in the Gangetic plains after major earthquakes in 1803 and 1934, proving that the region has a history of such seismic vulnerability. Experts noted that the area lies under the influence of active seismic fault zones, further increasing the risk.

Impact May Extend Up to 40 Metres Below Ground

Typically, liquefaction effects are observed up to a depth of 8 to 10 metres. However, the IIT Kanpur study warns that in Kanpur and Prayagraj, the impact could extend as deep as 30 to 40 metres, making the risk far more serious than previously assumed.

For the research, soil samples were collected from 20 locations each in both cities. In Kanpur, borehole samples were reportedly taken near the Ganga Barrage from depths of 70 to 80 metres.

Both Cities Fall Under Seismic Zone 3/4

Kanpur and Prayagraj fall under Seismic Zone 3 and 4, and are located within approximately 300 kilometres of the Himalayan belt, one of the most active earthquake zones in the world. The relatively weak soil conditions in these areas make them highly vulnerable to earthquake-related ground failures.

Need for Strict Construction Standards and Urban Planning

Experts have stressed that without timely implementation of earthquake-resistant construction techniques, proper urban planning, and strict building regulations, a major earthquake could result in widespread devastation.

The research also included surveys in parts of Gujarat, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar, and assessed liquefaction possibilities in certain areas of Lucknow and Varanasi as well.

The IIT Kanpur report serves as a strong warning for policymakers and urban planners to take immediate preventive measures to safeguard lives and infrastructure in vulnerable regions.