How Will Maharashtra Politics Shape Up Without Ajit Pawar? New Equations May Emerge

Mumbai: The sudden demise of Ajit Pawar is set to leave far-reaching impacts on Maharashtra’s political landscape. His loss will affect the state government, the NCP, the Pawar family’s political influence, Maratha politics, reservation movements, the sugar lobby, and the cooperative sector. Baramati, once the epicenter of Pawar family politics, now faces a void whose replacement will not be immediate or straightforward.

Leadership Crisis

The state currently operates under a ‘triple-engine’ coalition government. With Ajit Pawar gone, one crucial engine has been derailed. The Ajit faction in the assembly consists of 41 MLAs, while Eknath Shinde’s faction has 57 and the BJP 132, with the majority mark at 145. While the coalition’s overall stability may remain intact, Ajit Pawar’s faction will face a leadership vacuum.

Key Challenges Ahead

Ajit’s NCP is still part of the Maha-Alliance with BJP and the Shinde faction. With two Deputy Chief Ministers earlier, one position is now vacant. Several leaders, such as Chhagan Bhujbal, may stake claims, potentially sparking internal disputes. Questions remain about how many factions will survive, whether they will remain in the coalition, or move elsewhere. Politics in Maharashtra, as always, remains unpredictable.

Three Potential Leaders

One possibility is a reconciliation between the Sharad Pawar faction and Ajit Pawar’s faction. If such a merger occurs, the question of unified NCP leadership arises. Three names from the Pawar family may emerge as key contenders: Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra, and their son Parth.

Immediate Merger Unlikely

Supriya Sule currently leads her father Sharad Pawar’s faction and is a sitting MP. Sunetra Pawar, Ajit’s wife, lost in Baramati’s Lok Sabha elections but later became a Rajya Sabha member. Both women are known for their composed demeanor. Parth Pawar, who lost the Lok Sabha election from Maval, has yet to establish a significant political footprint. Given the leadership disagreements, an immediate merger of the two NCP factions appears unlikely. Temporarily, Sunetra may be appointed as the faction’s head to manage internal differences. Whether or not Ajit and Sharad’s factions merge, the BJP stands to gain politically, while Shinde’s faction will retain strength.

Impact on Maratha Politics

Ajit Pawar’s absence creates a vacuum in Maratha politics, which is already fragmented. The NCP is split into Sharad and Ajit factions, while other leaders loyal to the late Vilasrao Deshmukh and Prithviraj Chavan remain with Congress. The Ashok Chavan and Padmasingh Patil groups are aligned with BJP. Sunetra Pawar belongs to the Patil family, explaining Ajit Pawar’s proximity to BJP in recent years.

Reservation and Cooperative Sector Dynamics

Ajit Pawar had restrained the Maratha reservation movement; without him, the agitation may gain momentum. Leadership of this movement could determine the next dominant Maratha political force. However, conflicts may emerge between Marathas and OBC leaders under Chhagan Bhujbal, potentially affecting governance.

New Political Battlegrounds

The state’s cooperative sugar sector has long been central to Maratha politics. Ajit Pawar challenged Sharad Pawar here; now, Sharad may regain influence, though age limits his effectiveness. BJP could seize this opportunity, potentially strengthening its position in western Maharashtra. The Shinde faction may attempt to counter BJP’s rise, creating new arenas of competition between Marathas and BJP, possibly lasting until the 2029 elections.

In politics, the departure of a strong leader inevitably creates a void—but this vacuum also opens the door for fresh struggles, new alliances, and shifting power equations across Maharashtra.