BMC Elections: Why Mahayuti Hopes to Win in Mumbai’s Mumbadevi Despite Muslim Majority

The Mumbadevi area in South Mumbai, comprising five BMC wards, is witnessing a tightly contested battle in the upcoming municipal elections. While the constituency has a 51% Muslim voter population, political analysts suggest that vote splitting among opposition parties could give Mahayuti (BJP-led alliance) an edge.

Multi-Cornered Contest Shaping Up

The Mumbadevi wards are witnessing a direct face-off between Congress and Mahayuti. However, the presence of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) is expected to make the contest multi-cornered. If the Uddhav faction and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena align with Congress, a tough fight could emerge between the Mahavikas Aghadi and Mahayuti coalitions. Analysts believe that three out of the five wards may see a noticeable influence from SP and MIM, making the results unpredictable.

Congress’ Traditional Hold vs Local Dynamics

Congress has historically maintained a stronghold in the Mumbadevi constituency, winning the past three assembly elections. The current MLA, Amin Patel, secured a decisive victory in the 2024 assembly polls by defeating Shaina NC of Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) by over 34,000 votes.

However, the BMC election dynamics differ from the assembly contests. While Congress led in three wards (213, 221, 223) during the last assembly election, Mahayuti gained an advantage in two wards (216 and 220). This indicates Mahayuti’s intent to strengthen its local position in the municipal elections.

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities

Mumbadevi is a Muslim-majority area, with approximately 51% Muslim voters. Other significant communities include Marathi, Gujarati-Rajasthani, North Indian, and South Indian residents. While Congress traditionally garners Muslim support in assembly elections, Mahayuti enjoys relative backing in business-heavy and middle-class neighborhoods. This demographic mix makes Mumbadevi a closely fought battleground, with Congress and Mahayuti vying for dominance in the five wards.

Impact of Ward Reservation Changes

This year, reservation status has changed for several wards in the constituency:

• Ward 213: General
• Ward 216: OBC Women
• Ward 220: General Women
• Ward 221: General
• Ward 223: OBC

Except for Ward 221, all other wards have new reservation categories. This shift has increased the likelihood of new candidates entering the race, forcing both major parties to recalibrate their strategies. Congress faces the challenge of converting its assembly-level success into municipal victories, while Mahayuti and BJP must protect traditional wards and expand their influence in the constituency.