Bihar Rajya Sabha Elections 2026: Fifth Seat Could Depend on Owaisi’s Party

Patna: With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for elections to five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar, political maneuvering has intensified. The ruling NDA has begun strong lobbying for tickets, while opposition RJD faces a tough task in securing even one seat.

Currently, of the five seats up for election, three are held by the NDA and two by RJD. NDA is widely expected to retain four seats, but the fifth seat could be contested fiercely depending on the arithmetic of votes in the Assembly. According to the EC notification, nomination filing will begin on 26 February, with voting scheduled for 16 March.

NDA Stronghold: Two Seats Secure for JD(U)

Of the five seats, two belong to Janata Dal (United), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The incumbents, Ramnath Thakur, son of Bharat Ratna Karpuri Thakur, and Harivansh Narayan Singh, Deputy Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha, are serving consecutive terms. However, Nitish Kumar traditionally avoids sending leaders to Rajya Sabha for more than two consecutive terms, leaving uncertainty about their re-nomination. JD(U) is still expected to retain these two seats numerically.

Upendra Kushwaha’s Seat in Question

The third NDA seat, held by Upendra Kushwaha of the RLSP, is also contested. Kushwaha had won a by-election in 2025 with BJP support. Although his party is an NDA ally, sources suggest BJP may not nominate him this time, having already provided significant political advantage—including ministerial positions for his son Deepak Prakash despite him not being an MLA or MLC. With only four legislators in his party, Kushwaha would rely heavily on support from larger NDA allies like JD(U) and BJP.

RJD Faces Uphill Battle

The remaining two seats belong to RJD, held by Premchand Gupta and Amrendra Dhari Singh. RJD has only 25 MLAs in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, far short of the 41 votes needed to secure a Rajya Sabha seat. Even with Congress and Left support, RJD can muster only 35 votes, making it necessary to seek backing from five additional legislators.

BJP’s Potential Candidates

Although BJP currently holds no seats among the five up for election, it is the largest party in the Assembly with 89 MLAs. Speculation suggests Nitin Naveen, recently appointed BJP National President and former minister who resigned from Nitish Kumar’s cabinet, could be among the party’s nominees.

Owaisi’s Party Could Be the Decider

The outcome of at least one Rajya Sabha seat may hinge on the position of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which has five MLAs. If AIMIM supports RJD, the opposition tally could rise to 39 votes. Including BSP and independent MLAs like IP Gupta, opposition votes could reach 41—just above the minimum 40 required for a win in preferential voting.

This makes AIMIM’s stance potentially decisive in Bihar’s Rajya Sabha race, highlighting the complex arithmetic of coalition politics.