Bihar Election Results 2025: The Six “Trendsetter” Seats That Often Decide the State Government

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Patna: As the counting for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections continues, political analysts are keeping a close eye on six particular constituencies that have historically acted as bellwethers for the state government. Since 1977, the party or alliance that wins these seats has often gone on to form the government in Bihar. This year, all eyes are on whether this trend will hold.

The six key constituencies are Kewati, Sakra, Saharsa, Munger, Barbigha, and Pipra.

Kewati Assembly Constituency

Located in Darbhanga district, Kewati has a flawless record of producing MLAs from the party that eventually forms the government. In 2020, BJP’s Murari Mohan Jha won here, contributing to the JD(U)-led Nitish Kumar government.

Saharsa Assembly Constituency

In the eastern Mithilanchal region, Saharsa has also established a pattern: the winning MLA here almost always belongs to the eventual ruling party. In 2020, BJP’s Alok Ranjan Jha won this seat. This year, he is contesting against Indrajeet Gupta of the Mahagathbandhan’s IIP.

Sakra Assembly Constituency

Sakra in Muzaffarpur is another government-making seat, with a near-perfect track record except for 1985 when Lokdal’s Shivnandan Paswan won while Congress formed the government. In the previous election, JD(U) secured this seat.

Munger Assembly Constituency

Munger has only deviated from the trend once, in 1985, when Lokdal won while a different party formed the government. In 2020, BJP’s Pranay Kumar Yadav was victorious here.

Pipra Assembly Constituency

Pipra in East Champaran generally follows the trend of electing MLAs from the ruling party. The exception was 2015 when BJP’s Shyambabu Prasad Yadav won, while the Mahagathbandhan formed the government. Later, Nitish Kumar allied with BJP to form the government. This year, Yadav faces Rajmangal Prasad of CPM.

Barbigha Assembly Constituency

Barbigha has similarly shaped Bihar’s political landscape. From 1977 through 2000, victories here mirrored government formation, with Congress holding the seat most of the time. In 2020, JD(U) claimed it.

As results unfold, these six constituencies are being closely watched for signals that could indicate the direction of Bihar’s next government. Political observers say that a win in these “trendsetter” seats often sets the tone for the overall electoral outcome.

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