Will a Third Front Emerge in UP? Mayawati’s Strategy Likely to Intensify Pressure on Akhilesh Yadav

Lucknow, Nov 20, 2025: With the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections still two years away, political movements have already begun gaining momentum. The recent Bihar election results have shaken opposition strategies nationwide, forcing parties in Uttar Pradesh to reassess their plans. A major question now emerging is whether a strong third front will take shape — one that could significantly challenge the Samajwadi Party (SP) and its leader Akhilesh Yadav.

Post-Bihar Message: Only Strong Alternatives Will Be Accepted

The Bihar results have sent a clear signal — merely forming an anti-BJP alliance without a strong narrative is not enough. Voters prefer a powerful, credible candidate over loose alliances. This has created discomfort for parties projecting themselves as the primary opposition, especially the SP in Uttar Pradesh.

UP’s Political Equation: NDA vs. “All”

In 2027, the state appears to be heading towards a direct contest between the NDA and a divided opposition.
The NDA may continue with its present partners:

• BJP
• Apna Dal (S)
• Nishad Party
• Rashtriya Lok Dal
• Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP)

Internal ambitions of some allies like Om Prakash Rajbhar and Dr. Sanjay Nishad could create friction, but Bihar has taught the NDA one lesson — those who stay loyal, stay relevant.

In 2022, the SP tried to bank on anti-incumbency but secured only 111 seats, while the BJP scored its second consecutive victory. This has reaffirmed that under CM Yogi Adityanath’s leadership, the BJP remains the dominant force, and the NDA coalition will likely remain intact.

Opposition Camp: Visible Cracks

The opposition front appears fractured:

• Congress vs. SP tensions have escalated after the Bihar outcome, with Congress demanding more seats.
• The SP is firm on contesting at least 300 seats, unwilling to compromise due to possible cadre resentment.
• Akhilesh Yadav aims to revive the PDA formula (Pichhda–Dalit–Alpasankhyak) to counter the BJP.

Congress may have to settle for fewer seats if it wants to remain in the alliance. Meanwhile, SP’s ally Pallavi Patel (Apna Dal Kamerawadi) has already signaled her displeasure — raising concerns that she may exit the alliance entirely.

The Third Front: A Serious Possibility

The emergence of a third coalition appears inevitable.
Key players likely to form this front include:

• AIMIM (riding high after winning five seats in Bihar)
• Mayawati’s BSP, which is gearing up for a major comeback
• Several caste-based leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and Keshav Dev Maurya

A potential alliance between Asaduddin Owaisi and Mayawati could recreate a powerful Dalit-Muslim consolidated bloc, altering the state’s electoral dynamics.

Impact on Akhilesh Yadav

If the third front succeeds in drawing Dalit and Muslim votes, it could severely dent the PDA strategy of Akhilesh Yadav. Fragmentation of backward, Dalit, and minority votes would weaken SP’s core support base — giving the NDA a stronger edge.

Conclusion

As political temperatures rise, Uttar Pradesh is heading toward a complex triangular contest:

• NDA’s stability and continuity
• SP’s struggle to hold its PDA coalition
• A new third front aiming to reshuffle caste and community equations