What Future Awaits Rebel MLAs Without Upendra Kushwaha? Inside the RLM Chief’s Strategic Endgame

Patna:
Former Union Minister and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha is facing one of the most challenging phases of his political career. With three rebel MLAs staking claim over the party, Kushwaha finds himself caught in an organisational and political crisis that has raised serious questions about the future of both the rebels and the party itself.

At a time when Bihar’s politics remains deeply entrenched in coalition dynamics, Kushwaha continues to be regarded as a significant leader within caste-based electoral arithmetic. However, internal dissent and allegations of dynastic politics have dented his carefully cultivated image as a socialist leader opposed to family-centric politics.

Limited Political Weight of Rebel MLAs

The three rebel MLAs — Rameshwar Mahto, Alok Singh and Madhav Anand — are widely seen as having limited political standing of their own. According to political observers, none of them possesses the organisational strength or mass base required to win elections independently.

Though the rebels have reportedly met senior leaders from both the BJP and the JDU, neither party has shown any inclination to openly support them. Sources suggest that bringing the rebels into either camp could send negative signals within the ruling alliance, making them more of a liability than an asset.

Even the Mahagathbandhan appears unlikely to offer them a viable future. As one rebel MLA reportedly remarked, “We would rather quit politics than return to a leader who says one thing and does another.”

The Only Option: Recognition as a Separate Group

With political doors largely closed, the rebels’ only remaining option appears to be seeking recognition as a separate legislative group. The matter could be placed before the Speaker of the Bihar Assembly, Dr Prem Kumar, who has the discretion to grant them separate seating if procedural requirements are met.

However, even as a separate group, the rebel MLAs are expected to remain within the NDA fold. Analysts believe that by the time the 2030 Assembly elections approach, none of the three would be in a position to secure re-election on their own, making their long-term survival dependent on absorption into another party.

No Organisational Support for Rebels

Crucially, the RLM’s organisational structure remains firmly aligned with Upendra Kushwaha. Party cadres have not rallied behind the rebel MLAs. In fact, when these leaders were originally given tickets, there was considerable resistance within the party.

As the rebels intensified their criticism of Kushwaha, the moral and organisational advantage appears to have shifted decisively in his favour.

Kushwaha’s Possible Masterstroke

Political circles are rife with speculation that Upendra Kushwaha’s final and decisive move could be the merger of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha with the Janata Dal (United). Such a merger would protect the party’s political legacy, secure Kushwaha’s future, and automatically convert the rebel MLAs into JDU legislators—effectively neutralising the rebellion.

This would not be the first time Kushwaha and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar have executed such a strategy. Bihar has witnessed a similar political manoeuvre in the past when Kushwaha’s earlier party merged with the JDU.

A Familiar Bihar Political Script

If the merger materialises, it would reaffirm a recurring pattern in Bihar politics—where survival often outweighs confrontation, and alliances trump ideological rigidity. For now, Upendra Kushwaha appears to be weighing his options carefully, preparing what many believe could be his final strategic stroke to safeguard both party and political relevance.