ost Bihar Election: Smaller Parties Could Decide Formation of Next Government

P

B

Patna: In Bihar, the balance of power often revolves around smaller political parties, whose limited seats are offset by strong local influence and social base. Following the 2025 Assembly elections, these parties are expected to play a key role in government formation once again.

Smaller Parties Holding the Key

Even with fewer seats in the Assembly, smaller parties wield considerable influence due to their solid grassroots support. Alongside the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, several minor parties have emerged as active players on the ground, confident that the key to forming the next government could rest in their hands.

Vote Share Underscores Influence

In the 2020 elections, the NDA won 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110, highlighting the decisive role of smaller parties. The VIP led by Mukesh Sahni and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) under Jitan Ram Manjhi, each winning four seats, were pivotal for NDA’s victory. Similarly, left parties such as CPI-ML, CPI, and CPM held sway within the Mahagathbandhan, winning 12, 2, and 2 seats respectively.

Beyond Seats: The Impact of Vote Distribution

The significance of smaller parties extends beyond seat count to vote share distribution. In 2020, RJD received 23.5%, BJP 19.8%, Congress 9.4%, and left parties 4.7% of the votes, totaling about 57%. The remaining 43% went to NDA and Mahagathbandhan allies, independent candidates, and other small parties, emphasizing their sway over election outcomes.

NDA and Mahagathbandhan Adjustments

This election saw an expansion of smaller parties’ reach. Within NDA, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (R) rejoined after contesting separately on 134 seats in the previous election, significantly impacting JDU’s performance. Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party secured six seats. On the Mahagathbandhan side, Mukesh Sahni switched allegiance, earning 15 seats for his party. Leftist parties also increased their seat share, affecting larger parties within the alliances.

New Entrants and Emerging Players

This election also marked the strong debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj, who campaigned extensively in rural areas to mobilize youth voters. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is attempting to establish a foothold in Bihar, though its influence remains limited. Meanwhile, AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi continues to maintain a presence in Seemanchal, having won five seats in 2020.

Social Base Determines Outcomes

Bihar’s electoral dynamics are heavily influenced by caste and community alignments. VIP has strong support among the Nishad community, HAM among Dalit-Mahadalit groups, LJP (R) among Paswan voters, RLM among backward classes, and CPI-ML among rural laborers. These smaller parties now play a decisive role; in case of a close contest, the key to power may rest with them.

If