Mumbai BMC Elections: Can BJP Break Uddhav’s Fortress in Bandra East? Thackeray Dominance Continues Since 2017

As campaigning for the first phase of Maharashtra’s local body elections enters its final stage, the political temperature in Mumbai has sharply risen. All eyes are now on the Bandra East Assembly segment, where Uddhav Thackeray’s faction has remained dominant since the 2017 BMC elections. The key question: Can the BJP penetrate this stronghold?

Bandra East: A High-Stakes Battleground

Bandra East, a Muslim-majority constituency, is strategically critical for all major parties. The segment comprises six BMC wards. In the 2017 civic polls, Uddhav Thackeray’s faction (then undivided Shiv Sena) won five out of six wards, while one ward went to the AIMIM.

Political analysts believe that demographic equations this year may again benefit the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) faction and the AIMIM, making the BJP’s task even tougher.

2017 BMC Election Results – Bandra East Wards

Ward	Winner	Party	Votes	Runner-up	Party	Votes
87	Vishwanath Mahadeshwar	UBT	7,250	Mahesh Parker	BJP	7,216
92	Gulnaz Qureshi	AIMIM	4,882	Taslim Memon	Shiv Sena	3,538
93	Rohini Kamble	Congress	9,986	Pratima Sawant	Congress	2,748
94	Pragya Bhutkar	UBT	8,617	Rashmi Malusare	MNS	6,942
95	Shekhar Vayangankar	UBT	6,426	Suhas Adivarekar	BJP	5,529
96	Haji Mohammad	UBT	4,052	Kadri Sharif	Congress	3,681

The data shows a clear pattern: UBT maintained a strong foothold, with BJP trailing closely in some wards but failing to secure a win.

MVA vs BJP: Narrow Gap in 2024 Assembly Elections

In the 2024 Assembly polls, the vote gap between the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and BJP was narrow.
However, the situation in the BMC polls has changed dramatically:

• Congress is contesting alone, weakening the MVA bloc.
• If the UBT-MNS alliance materializes, vote fragmentation could impact results, especially in mixed-population wards.
• Reservation changes in Bandra East this year:
• Ward 94 & 96: General (Women)
• Two wards: OBC reserved
• One ward: SC reserved
• One ward: General

Muslim Vote Bank Under Spotlight

With approximately 95,000 Muslim voters, Bandra East’s electoral dynamics heavily depend on minority voting patterns.

• Congress going solo may hurt UBT’s chances.
• AIMIM is aggressively eyeing the Muslim vote.
• A split in Muslim votes appears likely.

Meanwhile, BJP’s prospects hinge on Marathi voters, North Indians, and Hindi-speaking communities, which form a decisive section of the electorate.

2017 Voter Turnout Snapshot

Ward	Total Voters	Votes Polled
87	43,567	23,819
92	32,860	22,184
93	36,783	21,147
94	51,236	27,851
95	33,904	19,798
96	35,420	19,135

Bandra East Caste–Community Math

Total voters (approx.): 3 lakh

• Muslims: ~95,000
• Marathi voters: ~1,10,000
• North Indians: ~32,000
• Gujarati voters: ~12,000

These figures make Bandra East one of Mumbai’s most politically sensitive and diverse constituencies.

Election Timeline

The State Election Commission is expected to announce the local body poll schedule by late December.
Objections to the draft voter list can be filed until 3 December.
Polls are likely to be held in January 2026.