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New Delhi/Patna: The first phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections has concluded with a record 64.46% voter turnout by 6 p.m., and reports suggest voting continued in several booths even after the scheduled time. The high turnout has reignited political debate — is this a sign of public support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the NDA, or an anti-incumbency wave favoring Tejashwi Yadav’s Grand Alliance?
Why Did Voter Turnout Surge This Time?
The unusually high voting percentage is being attributed to several key factors:
- Return of migrants for Chhath Puja: A large number of Biharis living across India returned home for the festival, coinciding with polling dates.
- Revision of voter lists under SIR (Systematic Information Review): Updates in the rolls brought more names onto the list, increasing participation.
- Women’s growing political participation: In recent elections, women have emerged as Bihar’s most decisive voters, turning out in greater numbers than men — a trend seen once again in this phase.
Political experts believe that this surge in voting reflects both enthusiasm for democracy and deep voter engagement, though it remains unclear which side benefits from it.
Can Nitish Kumar’s NDA Retain Power?
Many observers see the high turnout as potentially favorable for Nitish Kumar. His government recently launched a ₹10,000 cash transfer scheme for women, a move that may have resonated strongly with Bihar’s vast female electorate.
Nitish has historically enjoyed solid support among women due to policies such as:
- Liquor prohibition,
- Enhanced law and order, and
- Empowerment programs promoting women’s education and employment.
If past patterns hold, a strong female turnout could once again translate into a political advantage for NDA, led by Nitish and supported by the BJP.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Grand Alliance: A Challenge or an Illusion?
On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav has aggressively targeted the NDA’s welfare base with his populist promises — including:
- One government job per household, and
- The ‘Mai–Bahan Yojana’, offering a ₹30,000 one-time grant for women.
While these proposals have generated excitement, analysts question their economic feasibility. Implementing the job promise alone could require an estimated ₹12 lakh crore, whereas Bihar’s total budget is barely ₹3 lakh crore.
Moreover, internal political rifts in the Grand Alliance could weaken Tejashwi’s prospects. Reports suggest that the Congress, though officially allied, is unhappy about being sidelined and may not fully mobilize in Tejashwi’s favor.
The SIR Controversy and Vote Theft Allegations
The first phase also puts to rest — at least temporarily — the heated allegations of vote rigging and SIR manipulation.
Opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, had earlier accused the BJP and the Election Commission of using SIR to “steal votes.” However, with record voter participation, those allegations appear increasingly hollow.
Still, analysts caution that if the opposition fails to perform as expected, claims of electoral fraud may resurface — as has often happened in past EVM debates.
What Does the Voting Trend Indicate?
Historically, Bihar’s voter trends have followed a peculiar pattern:
- In 2005, voter turnout rose by 5%, and the ruling government lost.
- In 2010, turnout rose by 10%, again signaling anti-incumbency.
If the same historical trend continues, the 2025 figure of 64.46% could hint at a change in power. But if Nitish’s deep-rooted support among women holds firm, the high turnout might instead reaffirm the NDA’s dominance.
The Verdict
For now, Bihar stands at a crossroads. The first phase of polling has only intensified suspense and speculation.
Whether this record-breaking voter enthusiasm represents a renewed mandate for Nitish Kumar or a wave of change under Tejashwi Yadav will be known soon — when the results are declared on November 14.
Until then, the question remains: Is Bihar voting for continuity or change?
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