Bihar’s ‘Current Shock’ to RJD May Leave the Party Powerless in Rajya Sabha by 2030

The 2025 Bihar Assembly election results have delivered a 440-volt jolt to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, the party has managed to win only 25 seats, marking one of its most disappointing performances in recent decades.

This political ‘current’ is expected to travel all the way to Delhi and may impact RJD’s presence in the Rajya Sabha until 2030. For the first time in almost thirty years, the party may end up with zero representation in the Upper House when the state goes to polls again in 2030.

How Many RJD MPs Are in Rajya Sabha Now?

Currently, RJD has five members in the Rajya Sabha. However, these seats are set to slip away one by one in the upcoming cycles:

• The party stands to lose seats in the 2026 and 2028 Rajya Sabha elections.
• Even potential support from other non-NDA parties, such as AIMIM—which has five MLAs in the newly elected assembly—may not be enough.

Political analysts believe that smaller parties tend to extend support only where they foresee clear political benefits.

RJD Could Be ‘Zero’ in Rajya Sabha by 2030

Even in the best-case scenario, RJD may retain only one seat with external support. Yet, this possibility remains slim as Bihar’s current political arithmetic firmly favors the NDA.

Who Is Retiring and When?

All five RJD Rajya Sabha MPs will retire by 2030:

• April 2026: Prem Chand Gupta, Amarendra Dhari Singh
• July 2028: Fayaz Ahmad
• April 2030: Manoj Kumar Jha, Sanjay Yadav

Once these terms expire, RJD may no longer have the numbers in the Bihar Assembly to win any of these seats back.

2026: NDA Set for a Clean Sweep

In 2026, elections will be held for five Rajya Sabha seats—two belonging to JD(U), one to Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and two to RJD.
Given the NDA’s commanding majority in the new Bihar Assembly, all five seats are expected to go to the NDA.

What Happens in 2028?

In 2028, five more seats will fall vacant—three from BJP, one from JD(U), and one from RJD. Once again, the NDA’s advantage in numbers makes it almost certain that all five seats will fall into its basket.

RJD’s Influence Shrinking at the National Level

With the NDA’s growing dominance and the shifting electoral landscape in Bihar, the RJD faces an uphill battle to maintain relevance in national politics. If current trends continue, the party may enter the 2030s without any representation in the Rajya Sabha, significantly weakening its voice at the national stage.

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