Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Will BJP Emerge Bigger Than RJD? Exit Polls Hint at Major Upset

Patna: As the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections conclude, all eyes are on the results scheduled for 14 November. In the meantime, exit polls suggest a significant shift in the state’s political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to emerge as the largest party in Bihar, potentially surpassing the traditional stronghold of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Exit Poll Insights

According to recent exit polls, BJP is likely to secure 67–70 seats, outperforming the RJD’s expected tally of 56–69 seats. While this may not match the 75-seat benchmark previously set by the RJD, it positions BJP as the leading party, strengthening its role as the senior partner within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Meanwhile, the Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar is expected to win 58–71 seats, while RJD could end up with around 63 seats. The average estimates place BJP at 69 seats, JD(U) at 62, and RJD at 63, indicating that BJP could surpass RJD to claim the top spot.

Implications for Bihar Politics

If the exit polls hold true, this would reinforce BJP’s already significant influence in the state, which has been growing since 2020. JD(U) lost ground after Chirag Paswan contested independently, leaving the alliance’s senior partner with just 43 seats previously. The emergence of BJP as the largest party could reshape political dynamics within the NDA and the state’s governance.

Accuracy of Exit Polls

However, exit polls in Bihar have historically been inconsistent. This year, nine major exit polls—including Dainik Bhaskar, Matrix, People’s Insight, Chanakya Strategies, and People’s Pulse—predict an NDA win with a combined seat range of 130–167, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to get 73–108 seats. The average of these polls suggests NDA at 147 seats and Mahagathbandhan at 90 seats, highlighting a clear lead for the ruling alliance.

As voters await official results, the state braces for a potential political shift, with BJP poised to consolidate its position as the dominant force in Bihar.