Bihar Election 2025: No Party Has Ever Crossed 25% Vote Share — Will This Time Be Different

?

Patna: The first phase of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 witnessed a record voter turnout of 65%, the highest in the state’s history. The final phase of polling will be held on Tuesday, and results are scheduled to be announced on November 14. However, Bihar’s complex caste and alliance-driven politics has always produced unpredictable results — no single party has ever crossed the 25% vote share mark.

The Real Story Behind Bihar’s Vote Share

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 19.46% votes, down from 24.42% in 2015. The RJD bagged 23.11% in 2020, compared to 18.35% in 2015. The JD(U) has seen a steady decline — from 16.83% in 2015 to 15.39% in 2020. The Congress polled 9.48% votes in 2020, up from 6.66% in 2015.

Interestingly, Bihar often defies conventional electoral logic — the largest party doesn’t always form the government. In 2015, the BJP had the highest vote share, yet the RJD-JD(U) alliance won. In 2020, RJD emerged as the single-largest party, but the NDA formed the government. As analysts often say, “In Bihar, the right alliance wins — not necessarily the biggest party.”

New Equations in 2025

This time, the NDA comprises BJP, JD(U), LJP (Chirag Paswan), HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, while the Mahagathbandhan includes RJD, Congress, Left parties, and VIP.
Both BJP and JD(U) are contesting 101 seats each — a first in Bihar’s history. The LJP (Ram Vilas) has been allotted 29 seats. Nitish Kumar remains the NDA’s chief ministerial face, while Tejashwi Yadav leads the opposition bloc, with Mukesh Sahani’s VIP promised the Deputy CM post.

Strike Rate in 2020

In the last election, BJP achieved the highest strike rate of 67% (74 wins from 110 seats), followed by RJD with 52% (75 wins from 144 seats). The Congress managed only 27% (19 wins from 70 seats). Analysts believe Chirag Paswan’s rebellion hurt the JD(U), while Congress weakened the RJD’s overall performance.

Five Key Factors Favouring NDA in 2025

1. ₹10,000 Women’s Scheme, targeting 1.3 crore female voters.
2. Old Age Pension hike from ₹400 to ₹1,100.
3. 125 Units of Free Electricity, credited to Nitish Kumar.
4. Nitish’s image of stability and experience.
5. PM Modi’s “Jungle Raj” narrative, reviving memories of the Lalu-Rabri era.

Five Strengths of the Mahagathbandhan

1. Tejashwi Yadav’s youth appeal, especially among first-time voters.
2. Job promise for every family in a state hit by unemployment.
3. ₹30,000 annual assistance for women, countering NDA’s welfare pitch.
4. Anti-incumbency wave against the Nitish-led government.
5. Clear leadership, with Tejashwi as the CM face.

As Bihar awaits November 14, the big question remains: Will history repeat itself, or will a party finally break the 25% vote share ceiling?