Bhupendra Patel Cabinet Reshuffle, Two PM Modi Visits in a Month: Is Gujarat Set for BJP vs AAP Battle?

Ahmedabad: After NDA’s resounding victory in the Bihar elections, the BJP has set its sights on West Bengal, while the grand alliance faces setbacks and Congress remains largely inactive. Rahul Gandhi had vowed to challenge BJP in its stronghold Gujarat, but the party is already engaged in course correction. With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) gaining traction, questions arise: Will the next political battle in Gujarat be BJP versus AAP?

Congress Missing from the Scene
Despite organizational revamps in Gujarat, Congress is not showing the level of activity required. In the 2022 assembly elections, AAP had captured 13% of Congress votes. While BJP remains ahead and AAP gains ground, Congress is mired in internal disputes, with leaders hesitant to step out of their comfort zones. Of the eight assembly by-elections since 2022, Congress failed to secure a decisive win in five, whereas AAP retained its Visavadar seat, maintaining its credibility as a challenger.

AAP Strengthens Presence in Tribal Belt and Saurashtra
AAP in Gujarat is led by former TV journalist Isudan Gadhvi, who has kept the party active over the past three years, consolidating support particularly in tribal regions. MLA Chhatar Vasava from Dediapada enjoys popularity comparable to a film star. BJP leveraged Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence during the 150th birth anniversary of tribal leader Birsa Munda to strengthen its position in these areas. AAP has also been consolidating support in Saurashtra, raising the possibility of it becoming a viable alternative to Congress.

The Modi-Shah-Patel ‘Trinity’ at the Helm
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the strongest political factor in Gujarat, with a 24-year record of popularity. BJP’s central strength also comes from Home Minister Amit Shah, while Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, State President Jagdish Vishwakarma, and Deputy CM Harsh Sanghvi form the state leadership trinity. Modi visited Gujarat twice within 20 days—once for Ekta Diwas on 30 October and again for Birsa Munda’s anniversary on 15 November—to strengthen BJP’s presence in the tribal belt and Saurashtra.

Will the Next Election Be BJP vs AAP?
Political analysts are divided on whether the next Gujarat assembly elections will primarily be a contest between BJP and AAP. They point out that local body election outcomes and the upcoming Punjab elections will play a key role in shaping strategies. If AAP performs well in Punjab, it is likely to contest Gujarat with vigor, aiming to expand its support base.

High Hopes from Harsh Sanghvi
BJP has strategically elevated Harsh Sanghvi, who, as Deputy CM, visited Kutch with 30 IPS officers. Analysts note that while BJP has historically faced Congress in multiple elections, AAP presents a new challenge. If AAP increases its support, BJP will need fresh strategies. Bihar’s victory has energized the party, but for Congress, the challenge is now twofold: combating BJP and countering the rising influence of AAP.