A Strategic Challenge Bigger Than 1971: Shashi Tharoor-Led Panel Raises Alert Over Bangladesh

New Delhi: The current situation in Bangladesh is increasingly becoming a source of concern for India. A parliamentary standing committee on foreign affairs, headed by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, has issued a significant warning regarding the developments in the neighboring country.

According to the panel, the evolving political and security landscape in Bangladesh presents India with its most serious strategic challenge since the 1971 war. The report highlights the resurgence of Islamic forces, the weakening of domestic political structures, and the growing influence of China and Pakistan in Dhaka.

Key Findings of the Report
The committee presented its 9th report to the Lok Sabha on Thursday, titled “The Future of India-Bangladesh Relations.” While the panel clarified that the situation does not pose an immediate threat to India, it emphasized that it represents a long-term strategic challenge with significant implications for regional stability and India’s neighborhood policy.

Experts cited in the report noted that unlike the 1971 crisis—which revolved around existential threats, humanitarian issues, and the birth of a new nation—the current challenge is more complex. It involves generational shifts, changes in political structures, and potential strategic realignments away from India.

Preventing Foreign Military Presence
The panel recommended close monitoring to ensure no foreign powers establish military bases in Bangladesh. It also stressed that Dhaka should receive comparative advantages in development, connectivity, and port access. Regarding the rise of Islamist influence, the committee noted that Jamaat-e-Islami, previously banned, has had its electoral registration restored, allowing it to participate in upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, the interim government in Dhaka has imposed a ban on the Awami League, preventing it from contesting elections. The panel warned that such actions could raise questions about the fairness of future elections in Bangladesh.

Shrinking Political Clout of Sheikh Hasina
A major source of uncertainty, according to the report, is the declining political dominance of the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina. Despite winning 224 out of 300 seats in the January 2024 elections, the panel estimated voter turnout at only around 40%, raising concerns about public participation, political legitimacy, institutional control, and citizen trust.

On the presence of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India, the committee noted that India’s approach is guided by its civilizational ethos and humanitarian tradition, offering shelter to those facing serious crises or threats to life.

The panel recommended that the Indian government maintain its principled and humanitarian stance in accordance with India’s values and international responsibilities, while managing such sensitive situations with “appropriate care and discretion.”