In the aftermath of the Bihar Assembly election debacle, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a striking political prediction during his victory address:
“The Indian National Congress is on the verge of splitting into two factions.”

While it may have sounded like a sharp political jab, the developments of the past few years suggest there is more strategic depth to the remark than mere rhetoric.

From Madhya Pradesh to Maharashtra: The Pattern of Fragmentation

Indian politics has already witnessed high-voltage upheavals in several states:

Madhya Pradesh

The dramatic collapse of the Congress government—and the return of the BJP—began with internal dissent. The exodus of Jyotiraditya Scindia and his loyalists marked a turning point.

Maharashtra

Shortly after, Maharashtra saw two historic splits:

• Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena divided
• Sharad Pawar’s NCP fractured

Both ruptures altered the state’s power equation overnight.

Opposition parties have long accused the BJP of “engineering defections to grab power.”
The BJP counters this narrative by saying:
“Parties disconnected from the masses naturally face internal rebellion. We only provide space to leaders who feel sidelined.”

The recurring pattern is undeniable—internal dissatisfaction within opposition parties is quickly converting into political opportunities for the BJP.

Defections in Bengal and Bihar: A Continuing Trend

Across West Bengal and Bihar, the BJP has consistently attracted disgruntled leaders from the Trinamool Congress and the RJD.
In Bihar, this played a crucial role in reshaping alliances and ultimately helped the BJP emerge as the largest force in the state.

The worrying part for Congress:
The party is increasingly absent from these major battlegrounds.
It has faded from Bihar, Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha, and is gradually weakening even in southern strongholds.

Delhi: A Glimpse Into Congress’s Shrinking Space

The transformation of Delhi’s political landscape also carries larger implications.
As legal troubles mounted in the liquor policy case, the AAP faced significant setbacks—allowing the BJP to fortify its presence in the capital.

With leaders like Rekha Gupta being given central roles, the BJP has strengthened its roots even in a city where the Congress once ruled unchallenged.

Is the Congress Really Heading Toward a Split?

This question is no longer theoretical. Three major indicators point to an imminent internal divide:

1. Deep Leadership Discontent—Questions Over Rahul Gandhi

Many senior Congress leaders, both openly and privately, argue that:

• Rahul Gandhi’s leadership has weakened the party
• Organizational structures are eroding
• Decision-making lacks clarity and direction

The G-23 revolt was the first public manifestation of this internal dissatisfaction.
Today, the divide is wider, even if not fully visible.

2. Successive Electoral Defeats—Bihar Was the Final Blow

The party’s performance in Bihar has dipped to historic lows.
It cannot sustain alliances, nor can it independently mobilize voters.
This defeat has crushed cadre morale nationwide.

3. BJP’s Broader Strategy—Accelerating the ‘Congress-Mukt Bharat’ Vision

Political strategists widely credit Amit Shah with executing a clear, long-term plan:
weaken the opposition from within, consolidate power from outside.

State after state—Goa, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Arunachal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra—has seen Congress structures collapse or splinter.

This pattern aligns perfectly with PM Modi’s prediction.

If the Congress Splits, What Would the Two Factions Look Like?

1. Rahul Gandhi–Aligned Bloc

Ideologically left-leaning, youth-centric, and focused on social-justice politics.

2. The Organizational/Core Congress Bloc

Led by leaders who believe the Gandhi family’s dominance has eroded the party’s mass base and strategic direction.

A quiet fault line already exists—its eruption may only be a matter of time.

Is This the End of the Congress, or the Beginning of a New Chapter?

Analysts remain divided.

Some argue the Congress is now a symbolic relic rather than a national force, and India’s political future lies with regional parties and the BJP.

Others claim that a split may actually revive the Congress—
the stronger faction could reinvent itself, free from internal contradictions.

One truth remains:
No party in India truly disappears.
But weak leadership and collapsing organization can push even a national giant toward irrelevance.

Conclusion: Congress Stands at a Defining Crossroads

Prime Minister Modi’s remark—
“Congress will soon split into two factions”
—now appears less like political theatre and more like a realistic forecast.

Given:

• ongoing leadership disputes
• rising internal rebellion
• BJP’s sharp political strategies
• a long string of electoral setbacks

the Congress faces one of the most uncertain phases in its history.

The coming months will determine whether:

• the Congress splits and rebuilds itself, or
• this becomes the beginning of the end for India’s oldest political party.