Russian Oil Tankers Bound for India Divert to China Amid US-EU Sanctions

New Delhi: Following Western sanctions on Russian oil, India’s crude oil imports from Russia have fallen by nearly 29%, while China appears to be the primary beneficiary of the diversion. The geopolitical shift underscores the growing volatility in global oil supplies amid US and EU restrictions.

Turkish Port Sees Rare Russian Delivery

On the evening of 6 January, a Panama-flagged tanker, Bela 6, docked in Izmit, Western Turkey, and began offloading roughly 100,000 tons of Russian crude. According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), this delivery was an exception. The Turkish refinery Tupras had reduced Russian crude imports by 69% last month, ahead of the EU sanctions effective 21 January, which ban refined products made from Russian crude in Europe. These measures aim to cut Moscow’s revenue from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Refineries in Turkey and India importing Russian crude for conversion into jet fuel, diesel, and other products are particularly affected.

Global Supply Uncertainty Escalates

According to a report on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, international oil supply has faced growing instability due to a combination of US sanctions on Russian oil firms, the US embargo on Venezuelan oil, potential military actions against Iran, and EU measures. David Edwards of London-based commodity intelligence firm General Index said during a webinar on 14 January: “We are operating in an extraordinary environment, with unprecedented geopolitical upheaval affecting global energy markets.”

Indian Refineries Self-Impose Limits

For 2026, global oil production is projected to exceed demand, following a sharp drop in oil prices in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that Russian oil revenues have fallen to their lowest levels since 2022. Analysts, including Sumit Ritolia of Kepler, noted that major Indian refineries have voluntarily halted purchases of Russian crude, effectively self-imposing a restriction ahead of EU sanctions.

India’s Imports Down 29%

CREA data shows that India’s Russian crude oil imports in December 2025 fell 29%, marking the lowest level since the G7 price cap on Russian oil three years ago. The decline is partly attributed to US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which have constrained supply. Turkey continues to import Russian crude, though volumes have dropped by 20–30%.

Hiding the Source of Crude to Circumvent Sanctions

Critics warn that some refiners may attempt to conceal the origin of crude to bypass EU restrictions. They also point out that exceptions for countries like the UK and Serbia allow refined Russian products to be re-exported to EU markets, a strategy that could also be adopted domestically. CREA analyst Ishak Levy noted that the sanctions target ports and refineries importing Russian crude, but workarounds may emerge within individual countries to maintain supply chains.

The diversion of Russian oil from India to China highlights the complex interplay of sanctions, geopolitical strategy, and energy security, leaving global markets on edge.