India to Face Scorching Heat by 2050, Warns Oxford Study

New Delhi: The world is heading towards extreme heat by 2050, with India expected to be severely affected. Health risks and threats to agriculture loom large as temperatures continue to rise.

A study by Oxford University has issued a stark warning: if global warming continues at the current pace, billions of people worldwide could face dangerously high temperatures in the coming decades. According to the research, if the Earth’s average temperature rises 2°C above pre-industrial levels—a scenario that is increasingly likely—nearly half of the global population (around 3.79 billion people) will experience extreme heat by 2050.

The researchers note that even a 1.5°C rise would significantly accelerate heat impacts. In 2010, 23% of the world’s population was exposed to extreme heat; this figure could surge to 41% in the near future.

High-Risk Regions
Countries such as the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil will see the fastest increase in heat intensity. In densely populated nations like India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines, the greatest number of people will be affected.

The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, emphasizes that even traditionally cooler countries will not be spared. A 2°C rise in temperature could double the number of hot days in Austria and Canada. The UK, Sweden, and Finland may see a 150% increase, while Norway and Ireland could experience a 200% or higher rise in extreme heat days.

Implications for Infrastructure and Society
Dr. Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor of Engineering Science and lead author of the study, points out that most shifts in demand for heating and cooling will occur before the 1.5°C threshold is crossed. This underscores the urgency of preparing for extreme heat now. Buildings in colder countries are not designed to withstand such temperatures, meaning millions of homes may require air conditioning in the coming years.

The researchers warn that exceeding a 1.5°C rise will have major impacts on health, education, agriculture, and migration, alongside a sharp increase in global electricity and AC demand.