Heat Waves: Half the World’s Population at Risk by 2050, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines Most Vulnerable

The world needs to brace for extreme heat in the coming decades, as a new study warns that by 2050, half of the global population could be severely affected by rising temperatures. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines are expected to bear the brunt of the heat surge.

Global Temperatures on the Rise
According to research from Oxford University, the global temperature is projected to rise by more than 2°C by 2050. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C, experts now say achieving this target has become almost impossible. In 2010, 23% of the world’s population was already experiencing extreme heat; this figure rose to 41% over the next decade.

Temperatures Could Double in Some Regions
Between 2006 and 2016, global average temperatures increased by 1°C above pre-industrial levels. The study indicates that by 2050, temperatures in countries like the UK, Sweden, and Finland could rise by up to 150%, while Norway may experience a 200% increase and Ireland 230%. Even moderate warming in traditionally cooler regions could have far-reaching consequences across all sectors globally.

Impact Beyond 1.5°C Warming
Dr. Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor of Engineering Science, highlighted that most changes in extreme heat and cold occur even before temperatures exceed the 1.5°C threshold. Immediate measures are essential to mitigate impacts. He warned that over the next five years, demand for air conditioning could surge, and if temperatures rise by 2°C, the situation could worsen dramatically.

Dr. Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, added that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 would require decarbonizing the building sector. Exceeding 1.5°C of warming could affect education, healthcare, housing, and agriculture. The report also notes that extreme heat will increase electricity demand for cooling, which in turn could further raise carbon emissions, creating a vicious cycle.

The study serves as a stark warning: without urgent action, half of humanity could face unprecedented heat stress by mid-century.