Can India Pull Bangladesh Away from China-Pakistan Influence? Assessing the Jamaat Risk

The recent general elections in Bangladesh have delivered a decisive message: the Pakistan-backed Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, suffered a setback, failing to secure power. However, despite losing the opportunity to form the government, Jamaat’s presence as a significant opposition force could still pose challenges to strengthening India-Bangladesh relations.

BNP Victory Signals a Strategic Opening

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, secured over two-thirds majority, marking a clear mandate from the electorate. Analysts view this as a practical opportunity for India to forge stronger ties with Dhaka, especially after years when the interim Mohammad Yunus government was perceived to be leaning closer to Pakistan and China. Under Yunus, there were reports of Pakistani intelligence presence and military drone deals with China, and even threats concerning India’s Chicken’s Neck region.

Despite protests and demonstrations by Jamaat during the campaign, the Bangladeshi electorate rejected extremism in favor of a government focused on national development. Jamaat had attempted to sway voters, particularly women and youth, and leverage opposition to India, but the public favored BNP’s pragmatic approach.

India’s Diplomatic Moves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s early congratulatory message on social media to Tarique Rahman was widely interpreted as a diplomatic signal of India’s readiness to rebuild strong bilateral relations. India’s engagement with BNP, ideologically closer to India’s BJP, provides a workable strategic alternative to counter Pakistan and China’s influence in Dhaka. Tarique Rahman has assured India of his government’s commitment to bilateral cooperation.

Earlier this year, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended the funeral of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, signaling continuity in India’s outreach. Moving forward, India plans to deepen ties with Tarique Rahman’s BNP-led government, potentially stabilizing relations in a way that was difficult under prior regimes.

Jamaat’s Persistent Threat

However, the Jamaat risk remains. The party won 76 seats, mostly along border districts with India, including Satkhira, Kushtia, Bagerhat, Rangpur, Sherpur, Nawabganj, Joypurhat, and Gaibandha. These areas, adjacent to Bengal, Assam, and the Northeast, have historically been hotspots for cross-border infiltration, extremism, and smuggling. As a strong opposition, Jamaat could continue anti-India activities, posing challenges to bilateral cooperation and regional security.

While BNP’s government offers India a strategic partner and the potential to reduce Chinese and Pakistani influence in Bangladesh, careful diplomacy will be required to mitigate the ongoing risks posed by Jamaat-e-Islami along the sensitive border regions.