3+1 Quad: Pakistan’s Emerging “Trio” Against India and the New “Quartet” New Delhi May Join to Counter It

New Delhi:
India–Pakistan relations have plunged to a new low since Operation Sindoor last year, and fresh geopolitical fault lines are now emerging across South Asia and the Middle East. Pakistan is reportedly working to form a new military and strategic bloc with key Islamic nations, while India has been invited to join a parallel “3+1” grouping that could serve as a counterweight to Islamabad’s ambitions.

According to multiple media reports, Pakistan is seeking to position itself as a leader of the Islamic world by forging a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This emerging “trio” is being described by analysts as a potential “Islamic NATO” or even the foundation of an “Islamic bomb” axis—an alignment that could pose serious strategic challenges for India.

Pakistan’s Emerging Strategic Trio
An article published in Eurasian Times claims that a Saudi Arabia–Pakistan–Turkey strategic partnership could significantly alter the regional balance of power. The grouping would combine Saudi Arabia’s financial muscle, Turkey’s advanced military technology, and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. Such a configuration, analysts warn, could complicate maritime security in the Indian Ocean and reshape power equations in South and West Asia.

Reports also suggest that in January 2026, Turkey expressed interest in formally joining a defense framework already under discussion between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. A draft agreement is believed to be in preparation, focusing on naval cooperation, joint aviation projects, and drone development for the Pakistani military. Azerbaijan—already aligned with Turkey and Pakistan—could also be drawn into this expanding bloc.

India’s Strategic Counter: The ‘3+1’ Quad
In a parallel development, India has received a formal invitation to join a new “3+1” strategic platform involving Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. The framework—often described as a new type of Quad—also includes the United States as the “+1” partner. It is designed to focus on energy security, defense cooperation, counter-terrorism, and economic collaboration.

In late December 2025, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus signed a trilateral military cooperation plan for 2026, reaffirming their intent to deepen defense ties. The plan includes joint air and naval exercises, strategic dialogue, training in unmanned systems and electronic warfare, and exchanges of military expertise aimed at strengthening stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. India has now been formally invited to participate in the “3+1” summit and strategic forum.

New Delhi already enjoys close bilateral relations with all three countries—Israel, Greece, and Cyprus—making the invitation diplomatically significant. Analysts believe that India’s participation could help counter Turkey’s growing influence in regional geopolitics, especially given Ankara’s frequent criticism of India over Kashmir.

Saudi Arabia’s Potential Role in a Future India–Pakistan Conflict
The Eurasian Times report further claims that Saudi Arabia has long harbored ambitions to acquire nuclear capabilities. With Pakistan facing severe economic distress and American security guarantees for Riyadh seen as increasingly uncertain, a quid pro quo arrangement cannot be ruled out. Under such a scenario, Saudi Arabia could provide economic assistance to Pakistan in exchange for nuclear security assurances—or even nuclear weapons support.

In the event of another India–Pakistan conflict, Saudi Arabia might not intervene militarily, but it could be compelled under treaty obligations to extend financial support to Islamabad, thereby indirectly influencing the balance of power.

Turkey’s Ambitions and Wider Islamic Alignment
Turkey is also said to be aspiring to lead the Islamic world, projecting itself as a modern-day caliphate-style power. Ranked consistently among the world’s top ten military powers, Ankara is reportedly discussing formal entry into the Pakistan–Saudi defense framework. Other countries, such as Azerbaijan and even Bangladesh, could potentially be drawn into this broader Islamic strategic alignment.

India’s Regional Diplomatic Moves
In response to Turkey’s growing assertiveness, India has taken notable diplomatic steps by strengthening ties with Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia—all neighbors of Turkey. Israel remains one of India’s most important strategic partners, although it too faces pressure from Washington.

At the same time, the United States is imposing high tariffs on India and threatening sanctions, adding complexity to New Delhi’s foreign policy calculations. Analysts say India will need to navigate these shifting alliances with exceptional diplomatic maturity and strategic foresight.

Why the US Is Closely Watching Pakistan
Despite its concerns over Pakistan’s military-dominated political system, Washington continues to view Islamabad as strategically relevant. The Trump administration reportedly sees Pakistan as a potential lever against Iran and as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region. There is also speculation that the US is closely monitoring rare mineral reserves in Balochistan, adding another layer of geopolitical intrigue.

What Lies Ahead
Whether India will formally join the “3+1” Quad remains an open question. However, with Pakistan seeking to build a powerful Islamic bloc and regional geopolitics undergoing rapid transformation, New Delhi’s decision could prove pivotal in shaping the future security architecture of South Asia and the wider Indo-Mediterranean region.