New Delhi: In a major relief for India, former US President Donald Trump has rolled back the additional 25% punitive tariff imposed on Indian goods over the issue of Russian oil imports. The decision has been announced through an Executive Order issued under an interim trade understanding between the two countries.
However, experts caution that this rollback is not unconditional and could quickly turn into a pressure mechanism against India.
Rollback Comes With Strict Monitoring Clause
Geo-strategist Brahma Chellaney has warned that the real impact of Trump’s Executive Order lies not in the relief itself, but in the strict surveillance framework attached to it. In a post on social media platform X, Chellaney said the order formally authorises the US Commerce Secretary to closely monitor India’s oil imports.
According to the Executive Order, if the US finds that India has resumed importing Russian oil — either directly or indirectly — the 25% extra tariff can be reinstated immediately.
‘Indirectly’ Word Could Expand US Action
Chellaney described the term “indirectly” as a highly weighted and dangerous word, stating that it significantly expands the enforcement scope.
He said this clause could allow the US or European Union to impose penalties even on Indian refined petroleum exports such as diesel, jet fuel and other products, if Washington believes these were produced using Russian crude oil.
India’s Oil Import Bill May Rise by $4 Billion Annually
The expert also warned that replacing discounted Russian Ural crude with market-priced American oil could raise India’s annual oil import cost by nearly $4 billion. The cost would increase further due to longer transportation distances from the US.
He claimed the US intent appears clear: to make India’s energy security more expensive and tie it to distant American suppliers.
US Claims India Has Committed to Stop Russian Oil Imports
The United States has stated that India has made a commitment to stop importing Russian oil, both directly and indirectly. On this basis, the US has removed the additional 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods in August last year.
The Executive Order further states that India has also agreed to a framework for expanding defence cooperation with the US over the next 10 years.
Tariff Relief is Conditional, Trump Makes It Clear
Despite the rollback, Trump has made it clear that the tariff relief remains conditional. The Executive Order empowers US officials to determine whether India is following the commitment, and any violation could trigger further punitive action.
As per Chellaney’s interpretation, the Commerce Secretary, in coordination with senior US departments including the State, Treasury and Homeland Security, will monitor India’s oil import channels. If any breach is detected, the Secretary will recommend what further action the US President should take against India.
Experts Call It a Strategic Pressure Tool
Experts believe the rollback is less of a friendly gesture and more of a strategic tool designed to increase US leverage over India’s energy and trade policies.
The inclusion of an aggressive monitoring clause indicates that the tariff rollback could be reversed anytime, keeping India under constant economic pressure.
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