RIL Shareholders Lose ₹1.4 Lakh Crore in 13 Days: Why the Stock is Dropping Ahead of Results

New Delhi: The new year has not started on a bright note for millions of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) investors. So far in 2026, the company’s shares have fallen by nearly 7%, erasing around ₹1.4 lakh crore from its market capitalization. This comes after a stellar 29% return to shareholders in 2025.

Analysts point to concerns over crude oil imports from Russia and a slightly slower growth in the retail business as key reasons behind the decline. RIL is set to announce its Q3 December results on Friday, which could influence the stock’s next move.

Analyst Insights: Brokerage firms believe 2026 will be a year of multiple catalysts for Reliance. Morgan Stanley’s Mayank Maheshwari expects the energy segment to perform strongly in the coming quarter, while retail may experience slower growth. “The earnings trajectory remains robust, with several catalysts each quarter. However, near-term retail performance may temper stock gains,” he said.

Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: Morgan Stanley predicts that RIL’s EBITDA for the December quarter could rise 10% YoY, driven by a 16% growth in the O2C segment, as refining operations continue to perform well. Goldman Sachs forecasts 11% growth in O2C EBITDA from the previous quarter and 16% YoY, while Axis Capital estimates total EBITDA at ₹467 billion, up 2% QoQ and 7% YoY.

Retail Segment Slows Down: The retail business, however, faces headwinds. Goldman Sachs downgraded its expected retail sales growth for Q3 to 10% from 12%, significantly lower than the 21.3% growth recorded in Q2. Analyst Nikhil Bhandari noted that consumer spending trends across other companies indicate slower retail growth, as customers are cutting back on expenditures.

Market Snapshot: Despite recent declines, RIL shares are showing a recovery today, trading at ₹1,464.05, up 0.86%. The stock briefly hit a high of ₹1,464.85 on the BSE, with the company’s market cap at ₹19,81,221.66 crore. RIL’s 52-week high is ₹1,611.20 and low is ₹1,115.55.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are based on analyses from individual brokers and market experts, not Navbharat Times. Investors are advised to consult certified professionals before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly.