kAdani Power Shares Poised for Surge: Morgan Stanley Highlights 4 Key Drivers

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New Delhi: Adani Power Limited, a flagship company of the Adani Group, is expected to witness a significant uptick in its share price in the coming months. Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has projected a potential 17% rise, with the stock possibly reaching ₹185 per share. The firm has maintained its “Overweight” recommendation on Adani Power, citing multiple growth catalysts for the company in upcoming quarters.

1. Coal Remains Crucial
Coal continues to play a vital role in India’s energy security, especially in meeting peak evening electricity demand. Adani Power, India’s largest independent power producer (IPP) and the second-largest thermal power developer after NTPC, currently holds an 8% market share in coal-based power generation capacity and output.

2. Rising Market Share
Morgan Stanley anticipates that Adani Power is well-positioned to capitalize on thermal power capacity expansion. The company’s market share is expected to increase to 15% by FY2032, thanks to its 41.9 GW portfolio, which is 2.5 times higher than FY2025 levels. Additionally, the resolution of major regulatory issues has cleared the path for future growth.

3. Strengthened Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
Adani Power has fortified its PPAs, signing new agreements for Bittubori (500 MW) and Pirpanti (2.4 GW). Letters of Award (LoAs) were also received for Raipur (570 MW) and Anuppur (1.6 GW). The company’s PPA bid pipeline now stands at 22 GW, up from 17 GW previously, positioning its balance sheet among the strongest in the sector.

4. Boosted Earnings Potential
Recent PPAs, with rates between ₹5.8-6.2 per unit and high capacity charges of roughly ₹4 per kWh, are expected to deliver an EBITDA of ₹3.5 per kWh, significantly outperforming the merchant spread of ₹2.5 per kWh. Analysts suggest that this will strengthen the company’s earnings and cash flow outlook.

Current Share Performance
Despite these bullish indicators, Adani Power shares witnessed a decline on Thursday. The stock opened at ₹158.45 and traded lower throughout the day, touching ₹153.65, marking a 3% drop during intra-day trading.

Disclaimer: This analysis reflects views from individual analysts and brokerage firms, not NBT. Investors are advised to consult certified financial experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly.