India’s Exports Rise Amid Tariff Challenges; U.S. Sees Slight Dip, China Gains Big

Despite rising U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties, India’s merchandise exports in December posted a modest increase compared to the same month last year. Exports rose by 1.87% year-on-year to reach $38.5 billion, according to the Commerce Ministry, even as imports climbed 8.7% to $63.55 billion, resulting in a trade deficit widening from $20.6 billion to $25.04 billion.

Mixed Performance Across Key Markets
While India’s exports to the United States fell by 1.83% to $688.6 million in December, exports to China surged 67.35% to $204.7 million. The U.S., India’s largest export market, saw the impact of a 50% tariff imposed on August 27, with cumulative exports from September to December totaling $25.6 billion, slightly down from $25.8 billion in the same period last year.

In December, silver imports jumped 79.66% to $75.8 million, even as gold imports declined nearly 12% to $413.4 million. For the current fiscal year from April to December, India’s merchandise exports grew 2.44% year-on-year to $330.29 billion, while imports recorded a faster rise of 12.85%, driven by stronger demand from China and other markets.

Sectoral Highlights
Exports of petroleum products, gems & jewelry, rice, plastics, and leather products saw a decline in December. Conversely, engineering goods, electronics, marine products, and pharmaceuticals recorded robust growth.

Positive Outlook Despite Challenges
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal expressed optimism, stating that despite challenges, India’s exports are on an upward trajectory. “Merchandise exports in this fiscal year could cross $450 billion, with total exports including services expected to exceed $850 billion,” he said. FIEO President S.C. Relhan noted that the April–December export growth demonstrates the resilience and capability of Indian exporters.

India and the U.S. are expected to resume trade deal discussions soon, targeting a $500 billion bilateral trade framework, which could further enhance India’s export potential and global trade positioning.