India to See Reduced Russian Oil Supply in January: Reliance Confirms No Deliveries Amid Rising Geopolitical Pressures

New Delhi: India is set to receive significantly less Russian crude oil in January, marking a sharp slowdown in imports after several years of strong supply. Reliance Industries, the country’s largest refiner and previously the top Indian buyer of Russian crude, confirmed that it does not expect any shipments from Russia this month.

The reduction comes as Indian refiners either halt purchases or make major cuts in Russian oil imports. Analysts attribute this move partly to U.S. pressure, as former President Donald Trump had threatened higher taxes on Indian purchases of Russian crude.

Reliance Industries Update
Reliance clarified on social media that no Russian crude shipments have arrived at its Jamnagar refinery in nearly three weeks, and none are expected in January. The company also refuted media reports suggesting that three Russian oil tankers were en route to its facility.

India Emerged as a Major Buyer
Following the 2022 Ukraine conflict, India became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian seaborne crude. Western sanctions targeted Russia’s energy sector to limit revenues that could support the war. Reliance, leveraging its vast refining capacity, had been at the forefront of these imports.

Government Oversight and Data Collection
Reports indicate that Indian authorities have requested weekly purchase data from refiners for both Russian and U.S. crude. Sources suggest that imports from Russia may drop below 1 million barrels per day, as New Delhi seeks a trade agreement with Washington amid heightened tariffs and sanctions pressures.

Impact on Supply and Market Dynamics
According to analytics firm Kpler, Russian crude imports fell to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in December, the lowest in three years, down nearly 40% from the June peak of 2 million barrels per day. With Reliance stepping back, Russian oil deliveries in India are now expected to be confined mainly to state-owned firms like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Nayara Energy, the latter emerging as the principal private buyer amid disrupted supply chains.

This slowdown reflects the tightening global sanctions on Russia by the U.S. and the European Union and India’s efforts to balance its energy security with international diplomatic and trade considerations.

Outlook
As India navigates these complex geopolitical and trade pressures, the Russian crude supply landscape in the country is likely to remain constrained in the near term, affecting pricing, refining operations, and long-term contracts with Russian exporters.