India Set to Surpass US and China: Carlyle Group Co-Founder Predicts India Will Become World’s Largest Economy

India is emerging as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, and global financial leaders are taking notice. David Rubenstein, co-founder of the US-based Carlyle Group, has predicted that India’s growth trajectory could enable it to overtake both China and the United States within the next two to three decades.

Currently, India ranks as the world’s fourth-largest economy, with the US at the top and China in second place. Speaking to Economic Times during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Rubenstein said, “I believe India could become the world’s largest economy in 20 to 30 years.” He emphasized that India’s growth is uninterrupted by concerns over US-India relations, noting, “President Trump has generally maintained a positive stance toward India and has appointed a close aide as ambassador, reflecting strong bilateral ties.”

Policy Recommendations for India
Rubenstein urged Indian policymakers to nurture private credit and private equity markets instead of simply replicating Western models. He highlighted that allowing these markets to thrive would encourage well-capitalized Indian entrepreneurs to invest domestically, further fueling economic growth.

He explained, “Private equity (PE) allows companies to invest in businesses not yet listed on the stock market. Private credit enables companies to lend directly, bypassing traditional banks.” Carlyle Group has already invested over $8 billion across various sectors in India, demonstrating confidence in the country’s growth potential.

US-China Context
Rubenstein also commented on US-China dynamics, noting that President Trump’s approach was not aimed at harming China, but rather at addressing trade imbalances. “China, recognizing challenges with the US, began expanding sales to other markets, achieving an annual surplus exceeding a trillion dollars,” he said.

He added that, in his view, China is less of a strategic concern for Trump than the Russia-Ukraine situation. “Trump believes he maintains good relations with President Xi Jinping, and they are expected to meet at least twice this year, potentially reaching an agreement,” Rubenstein observed.

With India’s accelerating growth, global attention is turning to its potential to become the next superpower in the world economy, making it a country to watch in the decades ahead.