Government Could Receive ₹3 Lakh Crore from RBI, Enough to Build Three Delhi-Mumbai Expressways

New Delhi: The government may receive a massive ₹3 lakh crore cheque from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the upcoming fiscal year. Most economists believe that RBI will once again make a large surplus transfer to the government for FY 2027, potentially exceeding last year’s ₹2.7 lakh crore transfer.

In recent years, dividends from RBI have become a major source of non-tax revenue for the government. According to a report by Economic Times, Standard Chartered Bank has stated that the ratio of RBI’s dividend to GDP is likely to remain stable. However, if RBI reduces its Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB), the dividend could rise further. The CRB limit for FY 2026 was increased to 4.5–7.5% from the previous 5.5–6.5%. Standard Chartered noted, “If RBI lowers the CRB to 5.5% and increases dollar sales, it could transfer ₹2.5–3 lakh crore as dividend. In FY 2025-26, RBI’s dividend accounted for an average of 0.7% of GDP.”

Where the Funds Come From
Bank of America (BofA) Global Research highlighted that RBI’s dividend has become a critical component of the government’s budget calculations. Rising interest rates, a weakening rupee, and RBI interventions in currency markets have made these transfers increasingly important for the exchequer. BofA estimates the transfer could reach ₹2.9 lakh crore. Other banks, including ICICI, Barclays, and HSBC, also project a ₹3 lakh crore dividend for FY 2027, mainly due to gains from foreign currency transactions.

Goura Sen Gupta, Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank, pointed out that the historical cost of RBI’s dollar purchases is currently ₹69.3 per dollar, implying that recent dollar sales have generated profits for the central bank.

Impact of Rupee Depreciation
On Tuesday, the rupee closed at 91.72 against the dollar, down from 85.60 on 2 April last year, a 7% depreciation despite RBI interventions to stabilize the currency. Sen Gupta expects that RBI’s earnings from foreign exchange market interventions may be lower this year, which could have a marginal effect on the dividend.

If realized, the ₹3 lakh crore dividend could fund major infrastructure projects, including the construction of three expressways similar in scale to the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, highlighting the significant impact of RBI’s transfers on government spending capacity.