Gold and Silver Imports Widen India’s Trade Deficit; Exports May Gain from US Deal

New Delhi, February 17, 2026: India’s trade deficit widened in January 2026 to $34.6 billion, marking the largest deficit in three months. The surge in gold and silver imports was the primary contributor to the increased import bill, while exports to the United States declined, keeping overall export growth muted.

Import and Export Data

India’s imports rose 19.1% to $71.2 billion in January, the second-highest monthly import figure ever and the largest increase since April of last year. Gold imports jumped 4.5 times to $12 billion, while silver imports rose 2.3 times to $2 billion. Meanwhile, exports of gems and jewellery and textiles fell, although electronics and pharmaceuticals saw modest growth. Despite this, total exports in January edged up 0.8% to $36.6 billion.

Government Optimism on Exports

The government remains confident of achieving record exports this year. A key factor is the renewed demand from the United States after the removal of the 25% additional tariff in early February, which is expected to boost sectors such as gems, jewellery, and textiles.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal stated,
“India’s exports, whether goods or services, are on an upward trajectory. We expect this growth to continue over the next two months. This year, we may reach nearly $860 billion in merchandise exports, while services exports are projected to exceed $410 billion for the first time.”

Trade with the United States

In January, exports to the US fell 22% to $6.6 billion, while imports from the US rose 23.7% to $4.5 billion. This reduced India’s trade deficit with the US to $2.1 billion, less than half of last year’s $4.8 billion.

Outlook

Agrawal added,
“Fiscal 2025-26 was a busy year for trade, with several positive developments supporting overall growth. With key free trade agreements expected to come into effect in FY 2026-27, we anticipate maintaining this positive momentum in the coming year.”

The data highlights the dual challenge of high precious metal imports and the potential for export growth through international trade agreements, positioning India for a cautiously optimistic trade outlook in 2026.