After the Storm: Will Calm Return or a Tsunami Hit? U.S. Supreme Court Decision Today Holds Global Attention

New Delhi: India’s domestic stock markets have witnessed a sharp downturn over the past five days, with the Sensex dropping nearly 2,200 points and the Nifty falling by 2.5%. Investors now brace for further volatility next week, hinging on a crucial U.S. Supreme Court ruling expected today on the legality of heavy tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The verdict could either trigger a market rally or exacerbate existing instability in India.

Potential Windfall if Tariffs Are Struck Down
If the Supreme Court cancels these tariffs, India could emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries globally, as Trump had imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, severely affecting trade. Investors are particularly concerned about another looming threat: a recently approved U.S. bill could impose 500% tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia, which will be tabled in Congress next week. Approval could severely impact India’s energy security and trade capacity.

Investors Watch Closely
Market experts are not only awaiting the decision but also its specifics, keen to see whether the tariffs will be completely invalidated or only partially overturned. Dr. V.K. Vijaykumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said that the recent steep declines were driven by fears that India could face nearly 500% tariffs under the new Russia-related legislation.

He added that while it is likely the ruling may go against Trump, market reactions will depend on the extent of the decision. If the tariffs are declared illegal, a rally in Indian markets is expected, particularly benefiting sectors most affected by the 50% U.S. tariffs.

Tariffs Could Keep Volatility High
Conversely, if the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, markets could face further instability and policy uncertainty. High tariffs would continue to raise supply chain costs, pressuring corporate profits and delaying capital expenditure decisions. Experts predict that under such a scenario, markets might see selective stock movements rather than broad-based gains.

Investors worldwide are watching closely, aware that the Supreme Court’s ruling could set the tone not just for India, but for global trade and market stability in the coming weeks.